Seems like a fair representation of what, in all likelihood, will happen this year.
Possibilities for 2012? Basically, as I see it, the map will be forced to look notably different.
If Obama pulls off some magic and he and the Pelosi/Reid Congress can get some stability/troop withdrawals through in the next few years, it'll be kind've a joke election. Obama's approval/disapproval rating will be significantly high. The GOP will nominate a joke candidate. Obama's network will expand and his fundraising will be incredible (though perhaps depressed compared with now, since the excitement factor is lessened). The main critique against him -- that he's green behind the ears -- is wiped away. He'll take Arizona, the Dakotas, Montana, maybe Texas, Georgia, WV, and so forth. Basically all states whose citizens aren't dyed-in-the-wool racists.
That's pretty utopian though. What if he blows it? You might think well, the Dem electoral backbone is still pretty solid. He'll win all the Kerry states no matter what, so his floor is pretty damn high. Well, I'm not sure. I mean obviously he'll take NY, CA, MA, etc. But it's hard to imagine a scenario in which his presidency is good enough that he holds PA, NH, OR, MI, but bad enough (and his networking horrible enough) that he cannot hold VA, CO, NM, NV, IA... even FL and OH, to an extent. You'll have to think a LOT of the racial animosity will be eliminated after he's been in the WH for four years. A lot of the current seniors (more likely to be racist) will be dead. Latino expansion will lock up the Southwest. The results this year will make all the Bradley Effect chanting a distant memory (and polling should greatly improve).
Basically my point is that Obama is a lock to win in 2012, and fairly significantly. Any scenario in which he loses is a scenario where he just gets killed in the popular vote, I would think. The results of the 2010 midterms should be indicative of what we'll be likely to see.
