Thursday, March 19, 2009

Do They Know What "Political Realities" Are?

I never liked those who seemed to see any and every Obama decision through the lens of "pragmatism." Greenwald had some great posts on this. But with that said, there's a definite line between suckling full-throated on the Obama meme teat and being utterly delusional about what the current political realities are. Which brings me to this: It seems popular these days to call for Tim Geithner's head. It's pretty understandable when John Boehner does it, because he has nothing to lose. But when liberals -- those who ostensibly have something vested in Obama's success -- call for Geithner's firing, it seems quite detached from reality. For one, Summers appears to be de facto running the show, so you'd have to get rid of him too. Indeed, many people are suggesting that Obama fire both of them. However, all signs point to the reality that Obama doesn't tie his shoes within consulting with Summers first, so this seems like a lost cause.

Second, you'd have to deal with the fallout. Now, you could probably -- very easily, in fact -- drum up a poll this week showing 55% of the country thinks Geithner should be fired. Two things can be said on this front. One -- the public is fickle, and this is a reason that there isn't a direct democracy. Two -- "wanting Geithner to be fired" is very different from "approving of the partisan back-and-forth that will ensue" when everyone is squawking about how Obama is already an abject failure or how his next Treasury nominee isn't any different than Geithner, or is too different than Geithner, and so on and so forth.

Which brings me to three -- in the end, the replacement Treasury Secretary would have to be manifestly different than Geithner in order to suit your wants. Knowing who Obama surrounds himself with, and knowing how he plays things like this, this clearly isn't going to happen. Obama isn't suddenly going to call Joseph Stiglitz.

Everyone is already complaining that Treasury is woefully understaffed. Geithner, sans the tax returns, is about as easily-confirmable a nominee as you can get. The next nominee would take some time to vet and even longer to confirm. And after he saw what happened to Geithner and he was batted around in the media for a few weeks, who knows...